---
title: Law Of Large Numbers
date: 2025-11-08T00:00:00
author: Charlie M.
category: SIGNAL
---
So, I was staring at the ceiling this morning, wondering why my coffee always tastes better on Tuesdays. Then it hit me—I've probably made coffee at least a thousand times in my life. Maybe there's a law of... averages or something? Like, the more times I do something, the more likely it is to even out or get—what's the word—consistent? No, that sounds too organized. It's... reliable? Does that even make sense?
Anyway, this got me thinking about this thing I remember from a college stats class. The Law of Large Numbers. I think it’s this idea that if you do something enough times, the average result will get closer to the expected outcome. Or something. Like flipping coins and getting closer to 50/50 if you do it a thousand times. But does that apply to coffee? I mean, I don't flip my coffee, I drink it. Does drinking coffee a thousand times make it better, or just make me more addicted? Ugh, now I’m spiraling.
I guess this law is supposed to apply to big numbers. Duh, "large numbers,” right? But I’m wondering, what counts as large? Fifty tries? A hundred? I saw this TED Talk or maybe it was a YouTube video—can't remember exactly—that mentioned this experiment with roulette wheels in casinos. Something about them being predictable over tons of spins. But no one has a thousand chances with coffee or, like, life decisions. Is it still valid? I keep thinking, if I make enough good choices, they should outweigh the bad, right? And yet, still forget my workouts some days.
Oh, speaking of workouts, I tried this thing where you're supposed to work out consistently, and over time you'll definitely see progress. Or so they say. But what if I’m not doing it right? Maybe I’m like an outlier? I delete and re-download fitness apps constantly, thinking, “this time, this app, it'll work,” and—surprise—I’m still not jacked. Guess that's not how it works?
Some researchers, I think they were from Stanford? Or was it some other place?—say that with enough trials, randomness kind of disappears and real trends appear. But is that comforting or terrifying? Like, if I keep making decisions that don’t seem to pay off immediately, will they eventually? Or am I just filling the universe with my failed coin flips? Maybe the law of large numbers doesn’t care about my personal timeline. Maybe it’s this slow, creeping thing that sorts itself out long after I’m gone.
So many questions. And coffee. Maybe I should just... flip a coin about whether I care about understanding it all. Maybe it's about letting go or maybe not. Who knows? I certainly don't.