---
title: Anchor Effects Bias Estimates By 50%
date: 2025-09-15T04:06:03.932735
author: Charlie M.
category: SIGNAL
---
So, I was staring at my phone this morning, watching the sunlight creep across my wall, just wasting time scrolling through Instagram. And it hit me—how much time do I actually spend doing this mindless scrolling thing? I mean, it feels like hours. But then again, maybe it's not? I'm terrible at estimating time. Maybe it's like how numbers just get stuck in your head and you can't shake them.
Like, I heard somewhere—I think it was from Tversky and Kahneman—that when someone throws a number at you, it kind of screws with your brain. You ever find that? Like when you’re negotiating and someone just says a number, any number, and suddenly everything feels connected to that. I was at the farmer’s market last week and nearly paid way too much for some kale because the seller started high... I walked away with spinach instead. Maybe it's the same with Instagram time. I don't really know.
Anyway, there’s a term for it—anchor effects. Or anchoring bias or something. I guess it’s like when the first number you hear sets the stage for all the other numbers you'll think about. Apparently, it messes with estimates by up to 50%. Which is a lot, right? Or maybe it’s not? There's this negotiation thing I read about, where people throw out numbers just to anchor discussions. I tried it once in salary talks, but... did it work? I have no clue.
But it gets weirder. There's numerical cognition research too—that's about how we process numbers. Does my brain even know what it's doing when I see numbers? Like, sometimes I calculate calories after a workout, obsessively adding things up, and I wonder if any of it matters, you know? Is my estimate even close or just a number I made up? Maybe I should stop caring—or maybe caring too much? I don’t know.
I’ve lost track of where I was going with this. Oh yeah, anchors. So, we get anchored and it messes with our heads. Think about scrolling social media, like, there’s this constant barrage of numbers—likes, comments, shares. Do these numbers anchor our mood? Do they make us feel like we need to do more, be more? I deleted the app a couple of times, thinking it’d help me focus, but I'm back on it. I don't even know why.
I feel like I’ve gone in circles here. But maybe that’s the point? The closer I look, the fuzzier it gets. I don’t have any answers, and maybe that’s okay? Or maybe not. Who knows. I guess I’ll just keep going and see what happens next time I negotiate for something. Maybe I’ll remember this anchoring thing, or maybe I won’t. There's probably no neat way to wrap this up, but maybe that’s how it should be.